I'm not so sure.
The population of Ponyville is roughly = 326 ponies, with the maximum data set at 1260 min at 37
Or is between 3100 and 4300 ponies
Honestly I think a reasonable guess might be more reliable than these two wildly different numbers, especially when both methods had such glaring flaws as these.
The population of Ponyville is roughly = 326 ponies, with the maximum data set at 1260 min at 37
Or is between 3100 and 4300 ponies
Honestly I think a reasonable guess might be more reliable than these two wildly different numbers, especially when both methods had such glaring flaws as these.
Notice: in the first method of estimation I specifically said that the numbers I came up with were lower bounds of the values. And I meant the VERY lowest, as in "this number or infinitely bigger". No info about upper bounds.
Plus, since the show's creators don't specifically plan the population size for the town, and just want the town to look not empty (or empty when the episode's scenario demands that), then using different estimation methods WILL almost always give VERY different results.
They would be only similiar if the creators wanted to be realistic, or if we were analyzing an actual town.
Some people simply counted the number of houses visible in the theme song (plus estimated the number of houses off-screen), multiplied the number by 4 or a bit less/more (ie. assumed number of ponies living in each house), and ended up with various values below 1000.
They would be only similiar if the creators wanted to be realistic, or if we were analyzing an actual town.
Some people simply counted the number of houses visible in the theme song (plus estimated the number of houses off-screen), multiplied the number by 4 or a bit less/more (ie. assumed number of ponies living in each house), and ended up with various values below 1000.
The first formula for estimating population depended a lot on the value of the number C, which could be any value between those given in the table and 0 (due to many same-looking ponies and our uncertainity whether the same-looking pony is the same pony we marked earlier).
A non-zero number divided by ~0 can be arbitrarily high, so the first method of estimation could imply values of ~300 (or ~4 times higher, if I included the age distribution), or values many orders of magnitude higher.
That is why I said in the analysis that the first method wasn't good in this problem.
A non-zero number divided by ~0 can be arbitrarily high, so the first method of estimation could imply values of ~300 (or ~4 times higher, if I included the age distribution), or values many orders of magnitude higher.
That is why I said in the analysis that the first method wasn't good in this problem.